The year 2025 was not just another tumultuous year in the history books, but a year when the old world order was definitively laid to rest. Anyone who honestly looks back on January 1, 2026, will understand that good intentions are no longer enough - a survival strategy is necessary. The events of the past year - from tectonic shifts in April to the open attack on the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve - have been the final warning shot to the old continent. The message that many in Berlin, Brussels, and Paris still do not want to hear is that the West, as we knew it, no longer exists. For the political and economic year of 2026, this means a radical recalibration: the time for strategic naivety is over. ## The Time for Strategic Naivety is Over We can no longer afford to make New Year's resolutions that will be forgotten by February. Europe now needs an impartial view of reality and a readiness to part with three comfortable illusions that have lulled us into a false sense of security for too long. ## Illusion 1: "The U.S. is Back." Hopes for the Atlantic have become a political reflex in Europe. In 2026, we must learn to suppress this reflex. The assumption that after a brief phase of irritation, transatlantic relations will return to the normal state of the 1990s is dangerous and paralyzing. The capital market, often the most honest indicator of geopolitical realities, has long since raised its voice. In 2025, gold rose by about 60%, while global investors increasingly exited dollar positions and redistributed their funds towards safe havens. This is not just periodic noise, but a structural vote of no confidence in the old reserve currency. For Europe, this means that 2026 must become a year of financial liberation and the liberation of security policy. We must learn to swim without "Big Brother." This means not anti-Americanism, but sovereignty. The European pillar in NATO (Germany), worthy of the name, and the eurozone with deepened capital markets capable of standing up to challenges from abroad are no longer "nice" projects. They are the lifeline of our model. ## Illusion 2: "The Market Will Deal with China" For decades, the mantra in Germany and Europe has been: "Change through trade." It was believed that with sufficient export volumes, systems would eventually harmonize. The year 2025 definitively disproved this hope. Competition with China is not a normal struggle for market share, but a systemic brutal competition. If innovations in Shenzhen are emerging at a pace that Europe can only dream of, this is not an invitation to fair competition, but an attempt at technological takeover. At the same time, the escalation of U.S. tariffs last year shook the global trading order and squeezed Europe between fronts. The European response to this in 2026 must no longer be whiny. We must stop viewing industrial policy as a fall from market economy. Targeted promotion of key technologies such as electric mobility, robotics, and artificial intelligence is not classic "subsidizing" this year, but self-defense. Those who want the words "Made in Germany" or "Made in Europe" to have weight in 2036 must reclaim strategic autonomy over supply chains and production capacities. The market regulates many things, but it does not regulate geopolitics. ## Illusion 3: "AI Will Take My Job" While Europe acts too hesitantly on a macroeconomic level, hysteria often reigns at the individual level. The fear that artificial intelligence (AI) will destroy a multitude of jobs ignores the demographic reality of the continent: Europe is shrinking, the weak spot is the workforce, not jobs. The labor shortage will be with us even after the new year, whether we like it or not. ## If You Sit Idly By, You Will Lose But here, too, the following rule applies: if you sit idly by, you will lose. The year 2026 will be the year of specialists. AI is not a job killer, but a killer of mediocrity. It punishes mediocrity and rewards excellence. Those who perform common tasks that an algorithm can do faster and cheaper will be under pressure. On the other hand, those who combine deep human experience - whether it be craftsmanship, strategy, care, or research - with technology will benefit. For education systems and companies, this means abandoning the training of generalists in favor of developing deep skills. Technology is the lever that will allow Europe to maintain prosperity despite a shrinking population, but only if the continent masters it rather than merely consuming it. The key on the table: strategic autonomy. ## What Follows from These Three Illusions? The motto of 2026 cannot be "growth at any cost" or "return to normal life." It must be strategic autonomy. Europe is left to its own devices: neither Washington nor Beijing will save the continent. Both pursue their national interests with all the rigor that Europe will have to learn anew. This sounds grim, but it is not pessimism; it is realism, and realism is the first step to strength. Europe has enormous potential: one of the largest internal markets in the world, intellectual resources, financial power, and a history of resilience. The year 2026 is the year when this energy must finally be harnessed in the politics of power. Those who enter this year with a clear strategy and without illusions will not only weather the storm but will survive it. On the other hand, those who hope that the wind will die down and the old world will return will lose sooner or later.