The Rise of Aggression is Inevitable: The State Security Service on the Plans of Russian Special Services in Latvia

The State Security Service (SSS) notes that last year, Russian special services carried out a variety of activities against Latvia: sabotage against state infrastructure, aggressive intelligence gathering, and psychological operations aimed at influencing public opinion. Russia also continued its attempts to influence public sentiment in Latvia in its interests, developing propaganda and disinformation on the internet. Russia unsuccessfully sought "weak points" — topics that could be used to provoke division, disputes, and destabilization of the internal situation, the SSS states. Organizations and individuals associated with Russia or loyal to it also attempted to saturate the Latvian information space with messages that provoke society, incite interethnic hatred and socio-economic tension, undermining trust in statehood, said the head of the SSS, Normunds Mezviets. The SSS believes that Russian special services in Latvia will continue both intelligence and sabotage activities, as well as psychological operations. Other methods of expanding Russia's influence in Latvia and changing public opinion in favor of the aggressor country will also be employed. According to the SSS forecast, in 2026, Russian special services will continue to deploy sabotage activities against Latvia. The goals will remain the same: weakening support for Ukraine, increasing the feeling of insecurity and distrust in government among the population, as well as destroying various infrastructure objects. It is expected that in 2026, Russia will "intensively, systematically, and aggressively continue intelligence activities against Latvia." The activities of the special services will mainly be conducted from the territory of Russia; however, recruiting Latvians for covert and prolonged information gathering will remain a key method of their work. The most relevant targets for recruitment remain public sector employees and local government officials, as well as employees of critical infrastructure facilities, especially those associated with military or civil defense and the internal affairs system. The SSS predicts that online tools will increasingly be used for recruitment. Belarusian special services will continue their activities against Latvia this year in terms of intelligence gathering and conducting active measures. The main threat to the residents of Latvia will still be activities from the territory of Belarus, while the risk of online recruitment remains. Belarusian special services will continue close cooperation with their Russian counterparts, implementing certain activities also in the interests of Russia, as stated in the report. Similar to Russian special services, Belarusian ones were also interested in intelligence information about Latvia's critical and military infrastructure in 2025 — including the construction of infrastructure on the eastern border and NATO's presence in Latvia, as well as other strategically important information. Belarusian special services continue to show interest in the Belarusian diaspora in Latvia, especially individuals who have received asylum in Latvia and are close to the opposition to Alexander Lukashenko's regime. Increased intelligence risks persisted due to regular trips of Latvians to Belarus, facilitated by the unilaterally introduced Belarusian visa-free regime, notes the SSS. The SSS is one of the three special services of Latvia. The Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution (BPC) published its annual report last week.