The process has started: due to rising fuel prices, a quarter of residents have started to drive less

Significant changes in societal behavior have not yet been observed, the bank notes. Overall, 51% of respondents indicated that their habits have not changed, while 7% have started to stockpile fuel. The survey shows that men are more likely than women to save by reducing the number of trips — 27% compared to 20%. Differences are also observed between age groups: for example, residents aged 30–39 are more likely to have reduced their trips (29%). At the same time, in the 40–49 age group, stability prevails — 56% of individuals in this group have not changed their habits. Regionally, the most pronounced behavioral changes are observed in Latgale, where 31% of residents indicated that they have started to drive less — the highest figure in the country. In Riga and Kurzeme, reductions in trips are less common — around 20%. The bank's chief economist, Karlis Purgailis, explains that what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer perceived as a short-term shock to the oil market. The conflict in the Middle East is viewed as a much broader risk that simultaneously affects fuel prices, inflation, the availability of energy resources, as well as slowing economic growth or even the likelihood of stagflation in Europe. This is already reflected in the oil markets — the price of Brent has remained above $100 per barrel in recent days, and the market is increasingly pricing in a scenario where, with prolonged disruptions, prices could rise even higher, the economist noted. According to Purgailis, if rising energy prices increasingly impact inflation in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank may be forced to take action — if other prices and wages begin to rise due to fuel price increases, a tighter monetary policy may follow. He added that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has already downgraded growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations even under a relatively moderate scenario due to disruptions in energy markets. The Eurozone's economic growth in 2026 is estimated at around 0.8%, and more prolonged shocks in energy markets could further slow it down while simultaneously increasing inflation. According to Purgailis, this indicates a classic scenario of slower growth and higher inflation, meaning the risk of stagflation, which may soon become one of the main problems for the European economy. The bank conducted the survey of residents in collaboration with the research agency Norstat Latvia in March 2026, online surveying over 1,000 residents of Latvia aged 18 to 74.