Meteorologists expect that El Niño, already developing in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, will strengthen to a strong or even very strong phase by the end of the year. This is a worrying signal for global agriculture: the phenomenon alters precipitation patterns across the planet and is particularly dangerous for rice—a crop that more than half of the Earth's population depends on, writes The Conversation. **Vulnerability of Rice** During El Niño, precipitation is redistributed unevenly. In America and East Africa, rains intensify, while in Asia, monsoons weaken. Drier conditions develop in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, India, and southern Africa. This is critical for rice, as the main production is concentrated in Asia. Unlike wheat, where a poor harvest in one region can be compensated by a harvest in another, the situation with rice is more complex. A significant portion of the harvest is produced in a limited number of countries, and only a small share reaches the international market. Therefore, weather disruptions in several major countries do not get compensated but rather exacerbate the overall shortage. Three-quarters of the world's rice is grown in irrigated fields. Irrigation protects against uneven rainfall but itself depends on rivers and reservoirs, which are also affected by El Niño. A severe water shortage can impact several major producers at once. **Historical Lessons** In 2007–2008, global rice prices tripled, causing food riots in dozens of countries. In Haiti, instability even contributed to the fall of the government. Rice is not just a matter of nutrition but also of public order. In 2023, India restricted rice exports, triggering a global price surge. Later, the lifting of restrictions eased the pressure, but the respite may be temporary. Export bans and panic buying in 2007–2008 played a key role in the crisis. Earlier, scientists calculated what would happen to food products by 2100. **Possible Solutions** Unfortunately, it is impossible to contain El Niño, but scientists are working on drought-resistant rice varieties. Agronomic methods—allowing fields to dry out between irrigations—also help save water. However, completely reducing standing water is dangerous: it protects plants from overheating. Accurate climate forecasts, investments in research, and countries' readiness to maintain trade openness are necessary to protect rice fields.