Кто завоюет этот Кубок?

Who is the favorite? Who to watch? We will answer these and other questions in our material. **What form is Argentina in?** In short, in stunning form. Seven matches — seven wins, two of which occurred in extra time. The overall score is 19:7. Throughout the tournament, the Argentinians have been criticized for their poor play, for FIFA's manipulations, and for other crimes against football. But at the moment, they have a hundred percent winning record heading into the World Cup final. Their victories in the quarterfinals and semifinals (against Switzerland and England, respectively) will forever go down in football history as masterpieces of drama. We are talking about a very strong team with several clear attacking threats. The first is Lionel Messi, with eight goals. The second is Lautaro Martinez, with three goals. Five other players have scored one goal each. The statistics heavily emphasize one fact — the incredible dependence on Messi. But here, Argentina's head coach Lionel Scaloni has turned this weakness into a significant tactical advantage. The 39-year-old Messi plays as he did in his prime. The other Argentine players simply do not hinder him: they create space, look for passes, and allow him to be the creative editor of most attacks and score. Some data confirms this. For example, Leo has 25 successful dribbles in the 2026 World Cup — the highest in history. And Messi is the first person since Pelé (1970 World Cup) with four assists in World Cup knockout stages. Age does not play any role in Messi's story, and Argentina's dependence on him only benefits the team. What is the team's weakness in this World Cup? They find it very difficult to play against fast and athletic opponents who maintain possession. The match against England confirms this, as for the first hour of play, most of the chances were created by Thomas Tuchel's players. What changed? Messi exploded — after that, he methodically took the initiative, and his teammates helped him. **What form is Spain in?** In terms of tournament progress — the same: reaching the World Cup final means reaching the final. However, in statistics, the Spaniards are slightly worse: seven matches = one draw + six wins. The overall score is 14:1. Spain does not have its own Messi in terms of scoring, but one player does have a goal advantage. Mikel Oyarzabal has scored five goals in this tournament. He has already matched the national team's record for goals in a single World Cup: the same number was scored by Emilio Butragueño (1986) and David Villa (2010). A significant disadvantage for Argentina is that this Spain is characterized by a high overall level of play and athleticism. Even opponents are impressed. For example, Messi said: "Spain has an amazing team with wonderful players and a fantastic style. I know it very well. This playing philosophy has been around for many years. I know many Spanish players, I have played against them. I follow them, some of them play for Barcelona — the team I love and always support. This will be a special match. I expect the game to be very intense." Weaknesses? Perhaps Spain has lost a bit due to the low effectiveness of Lamine Yamal in this World Cup. The main wonderkid of world football arrived at the tournament with an injury and scored only against Saudi Arabia. In better form, Yamal would be the leader of the team in almost all aspects, especially in organizing attacking actions and creating potentially goal-scoring opportunities. Currently, other players have taken on this responsibility for Spain. **Will this be the first meeting between Argentina and Spain?** No, there have been plenty of friendly matches. However, there has been only one official match. The opponents have never met in World Cup finals. The only encounter in World Cup history was back in 1966. At that time, in the group stage of the World Cup, Argentina defeated their opponent 2:1. Luis Artime, a legend of River Plate, scored both goals for Argentina. The Spaniards responded with a goal from Pirri, who played over 400 matches for Real Madrid. The current head coach of the Argentine national team, Lionel Scaloni, was born 12 years after that match, while Messi was born 21 years later. The head coach of the Spanish national team was five years old at the time of the match. Lamine Yamal was born 41 years after the starting whistle of that encounter. **What are the scenarios before the World Cup final?** For the first time in a World Cup final, the best teams in the FIFA rankings — Spain and Argentina — will face off. The final of the 2026 World Cup will take place on July 19 at 22:00 Latvian time. Spain and Argentina will play at MetLife Stadium, located in New Jersey. According to the supercomputer of the statistical portal Opta, Spain's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup are higher — 56.05%. Argentina's chances of winning are, accordingly, lower — 43.95%. From other scenarios: - Messi is the most likely goal scorer in the World Cup final. The second is Mikel Oyarzabal. - Unai Simon from Spain will become the best goalkeeper of the tournament. - Michael Olise will become the best assistant of the 2026 World Cup. Currently, the Frenchman has five assists. Only Leo Messi (four assists) can surpass him. - Kylian Mbappé will become the top scorer of the 2026 World Cup. The Frenchman has scored eight goals, the same as Messi. Both have one match to pull ahead: Messi has the World Cup final, while Kylian has the third-place match.