Experts and bookmakers favor the Europeans: Spain is considered the favorite of the final with a winning odds of 2.30. Argentina's chances for the World Cup are rated at 3.65. But it's not that simple. **The President of Argentina refused to fly to the final due to superstition** The supercomputer is also on Spain's side. According to Opta's calculations, Spain's chances of winning are 56%. Argentina's chances are 44%. On the other hand, Opta discredited itself in the semifinals: it named France and England as favorites, and they ended up playing for third place. To increase Argentina's chances, even the head of state Javier Milei got involved. In Argentina, since the 1990 World Cup, a superstition has taken root that the personal presence of the president at the stadium attracts defeat. Therefore, Milei refused to fly to New York for the game and decided to stay at his residence in Olivos, where he will watch the final in a lucky jacket. **Will Argentina score against Spain?** The Spanish national team has shown itself to be the most balanced in defense at the 2026 World Cup. The Spaniards have conceded only one goal throughout the tournament. So the main intrigue of the 2026 World Cup final is whether Lionel Messi and his friends can change this statistic. Arguments in favor of Argentina lie in Messi's attacking statistics: 8 goals + 4 assists in 7 tournament games. The entire team has scored 19 goals – a national record that has stood since 1930 has been broken. And Argentina has often conceded a lot in this World Cup 2026. According to bookmakers, both teams will score in this match, but there won't be many goals, so the most likely outcome is that the teams will draw 1:1 in regular or extra time. **A goal from Messi in the final is most likely, as is an assist** When presenting the World Cup final Spain – Argentina, there is often talk of the rivalry between Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi. But on the field, they will likely not meet very often. The real duel will surely unfold between Messi and Rodri. Bookmakers believe that Lionel Messi will score a goal in the 2026 World Cup final. The odds for a Messi goal are 2.50, making it the most likely goal for either team. In second place is Oyarzabal at 2.7. By the way, in terms of assists, Messi is also ahead of the game. The odds for Lionel Messi to make an assist are 4.00. **VAR could decide the fate of the match** It is possible that in the 2026 World Cup final, referees will take center stage. Perhaps even video referees. The odds for the referee to award a penalty after reviewing VAR are set at 6.5. The odds for the referee to send off a player after reviewing VAR are set at 9.00. **Key facts about the 2026 World Cup final match Spain – Argentina:** - For the first time in history, the teams ranked 1st and 2nd in the FIFA rankings meet in the World Cup final. - Argentina is a three-time world champion (1978, 1986, 2022), while Spain is a one-time champion (2010). - If Argentina wins, it will become the first team since 1962 to win two consecutive World Cups (Brazil did this in 1958 and 1962). - If Spain wins, it will become the first team to win the title twice in the 21st century. - The teams have met 14 times in official matches: 6 wins for each and 2 draws. The only match in the World Cup was in the 1966 group stage, where Argentina won 2:1. - Messi and Yamal have never met on the football field. - Argentina scored 19 goals – the best performance at the 2026 World Cup. Messi: 8 goals + 4 assists, participated in 12 of the team's 19 goals. - Spain conceded only 1 goal in the entire tournament – the best defense. - Both teams won all 7 matches in the tournament, but their paths were radically different: Spain faced no problems, while Argentina won three times in extra time. - The value of the Spanish national team squad is €1.47 billion – almost 80% more expensive than Argentina. - Lamine Yamal is the most expensive player in the world: €292.2 million. - The average age of Spain is 26.7 years, while Argentina's is 29.1 years – one of the oldest teams in the tournament. Match start: today at 22:00 Latvian time. To read about how the third-place match at the World Cup went, click [here](https://bb.lv/statja/sport/2026/07/19/v-matce-za-3-e-mesto-anglicane-i-francuzy-nakolotili-drug-drugu-10-golov)