Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's resolve to fulfill its collective defense commitments through a limited attack on one of the alliance's countries. This is reported by *The Wall Street Journal*, citing new assessments from U.S. intelligence and sources within the U.S. administration. According to the publication, until recently, Washington believed that the Kremlin would not provoke a direct conflict with NATO while the war against Ukraine continued. However, this assessment changed in early 2026. American analysts believe that against the backdrop of a protracted war, increasing pressure on Russia, and a lack of decisive success in Ukraine, Moscow may resort to more risky actions, hoping to test the unity of the North Atlantic alliance and the readiness of the U.S. to defend its allies. Among the possible scenarios, intelligence considers large-scale cyberattacks, sabotage, actions by unidentified armed groups, as well as a limited incursion on NATO's eastern flank. According to sources from the newspaper, the time period during which such actions are deemed most likely spans from the fall of 2026 to 2029. At the same time, American analysts currently assess the likelihood of a full-scale ground invasion as low. However, they warn that as the situation develops, the risk may increase. Particular concern in Washington is raised by so-called hybrid operations — cyberattacks, sabotage, or other actions that do not fall under the obvious application of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense. According to American officials, this is the form of pressure that Moscow may use to test NATO's readiness for a joint response. The publication notes that Washington and European capitals are already considering instances of Russian missiles and drones falling on the territory of Poland and Romania as possible elements of such a pressure strategy. New intelligence assessments have emerged against the backdrop of growing concern over the state of American military stocks. According to *The Wall Street Journal*, arms supplies to Ukraine, as well as the recent conflict between the U.S. and Iran, have significantly reduced the arsenals of several critically important weapon systems. These include precision-guided long-range missiles **Precision Strike Missile**, tactical missiles **ATACMS**, portable air defense systems **Stinger**, as well as interceptors **Patriot**, **SM-3**, and **THAAD**. At the same time, the Pentagon and the White House reject claims that stock reductions limit U.S. combat capabilities. The authors of the publication note that the depletion of American arsenals raises concerns not only in connection with the situation in Europe but also in the context of potential confrontation with China. It is the combination of the risk of Russian provocation against NATO and the need to simultaneously maintain readiness for other potential conflicts that makes the new intelligence assessments particularly sensitive for Washington. U.S. intelligence does not currently consider a large-scale Russian attack on NATO countries to be the most likely scenario. However, analysts believe that the risk of limited hybrid or local provocations in the coming years remains real, with their possible goal being to test the alliance's unity and the West's readiness for a collective response.