This is reported by The Atlantic. The publication noted that public statements from NATO leadership have increasingly included warnings about the possibility of a large-scale conflict that could simultaneously engulf Europe and Asia. In particular, at the end of last year, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggested in an interview with a German newspaper that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could be coordinated with Moscow's actions in Europe. According to him, Beijing could attempt to distract the West from the Asian theater of operations by leveraging its partnership with Russia. One of the most detailed studies of such a scenario, the publication notes, was prepared by the European Centre for Security Policy and Values in Prague. Its director, 35-year-old Jakub Janda, told the author of the article that he began studying the possibility of a so-called "two-theater war" after the organization opened an office in Taipei (Taiwan) in January 2022. At that time, the prospect of coordinated actions by Moscow and Beijing seemed unlikely. The situation changed just a month after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As the publication recalls, Vladimir Putin visited Beijing less than three weeks before the war began. Since then, he has visited China several more times, with a new visit planned for November. During this period, China has become a key supplier of technology for the Russian defense industry and has supported the Russian economy through oil and gas purchases. At the same time, both countries regularly conduct joint military exercises. The first military simulation of a possible joint attack by Russia and China was conducted by the Prague analytical center in the spring of 2024. According to Janda, it was not easy to attract a sufficient number of experts, as most researchers specialize only in individual regions. Subsequently, the participants in the exercises concluded that wars in Europe and Asia could mutually reinforce each other. According to Jakub Janda, the institute has already conducted about twenty such war games involving specialists from different countries, including Japan and South Korea. The results were particularly alarming for Europeans. In most scenarios, the US focuses its main resources on deterring China and reallocates military forces to Asia, leaving NATO allies to confront Russia on their own. One of the scenarios considered suggests that China first imposes an export ban on raw materials for the European defense sector. A few months later, when arms production in Europe begins to experience resource shortages, Russia attacks one of the Eastern European NATO members. As noted in the publication, all modeled scenarios demonstrated the critical importance of unity among Western states. For example, in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Washington may demand that European partners impose strict economic sanctions against Beijing. However, such a prospect raises serious doubts in European capitals. "But European governments do not want to do that. Taiwan is far away. They want to focus on the threat from Russia, and that is what scares me," Janda noted. The author of the article concludes: if Russia and China act in concert, and the US and its allies cannot maintain unity, the prospects for the West in a potential two-front war will look increasingly bleak, reports the UNIAN agency.
