The year 2026 is expected to go down in history due to El Niño, which could turn out to be the strongest on record as the world hurriedly prepares for the onslaught of extreme weather. This natural weather phenomenon (Spanish for "the boy") occurs irregularly — about every two to seven years — when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean become abnormally high. Scientists began warning earlier this year that a strong El Niño could form, fueled by large heat reserves in the ocean's subsurface layers and the anticipated weakening of the trade winds. In the first week of June, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that El Niño conditions had officially developed. By the end of summer, experts warned that this "unprecedented" El Niño could become the most powerful event since the 19th century — it has already been dubbed "Godzilla" or "super El Niño." ## Is El Niño Strengthening and What Are the Consequences? According to the WMO, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecasted to reach record levels in October, November, and December. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region where El Niño originates, are measured by the widely used Niño 3.4 index. In June 2026, it averaged +1.6 °C above normal, and by August, it had risen to +2.5 °C. For the October–November–December period, the seasonal average sea surface temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 index is projected to reach approximately +3.7 °C. This would be the highest reading on record and significantly above the previous record of +2.6 °C set in November 2015 – January 2016. Previous El Niño episodes have already contributed to temperature records, fueling prolonged droughts, sudden floods, and deadly wildfires around the world. The main weather effects of El Niño manifest in the tropics; however, Europe may face a milder but wetter winter. The peak of El Niño can also weaken the polar vortex, increasing the likelihood of sudden cold snaps. South America, the southern United States, East Africa, and Central Asia have faced increased flood risks during past El Niño episodes, while drought and wildfire risks have risen in significant parts of Australia, northern South America, and several Asian countries, including Indonesia. Extreme weather in other regions of the world will inevitably impact Europe as well. The Institute for Water Education IHE Delft in the Netherlands works in regions directly affected by El Niño and warns that many staple foods imported by Europe could be at risk. In Nicaragua, crops such as corn and beans may fail in already vulnerable areas, leading to food instability and loss of income in the country. A lack of rain and low river water levels mean that irrigated crops in Colombia, northeastern Brazil, and India will face severe restrictions or will have to rely more on groundwater, risking over-extraction — as well as disruptions to exports. ## El Niño Timeline: When Will It Peak and End? In its latest statement, the WMO indicates that El Niño is expected to peak in December and persist into the following year. "El Niño has already firmly established itself and is rapidly gaining strength," warns WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "WMO forecasts indicate nearly a 100% chance that it will continue at least until February 2027 and may become one of the strongest episodes since at least 1950." The nearly 100% estimate is based on multiple climate modeling efforts. The WMO coordinated data from ocean buoys, satellites, and radiosondes obtained from 13 national and international centers to form the forecast. El Niño is not expected to end until spring 2027, but its impacts are likely to extend longer. This is why experts warn that the next year could become the hottest on record. ## El Niño Overlaying Climate Change In most cases, El Niño raises the planet's average temperature by about 0.2 °C. This is enough to trigger extreme weather events in Global South countries, but it is only part of the additional warming caused by climate change. Global warming, driven by fossil fuel combustion, has already increased the average land temperature on Earth by 1.3–1.4 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. This has set the stage for an abnormally hot European summer, prolonged drought, and devastating wildfires. Today, the effects of El Niño overlay an already warmed world — and it is the long-term warming that has a far stronger influence on the extreme weather we are witnessing. For instance, 2025 was the third hottest year on record — warmer than the year of the strong El Niño in 2016, despite the natural cooling effect of its counterpart La Niña. Recent studies show that climate change is literally "supercharging" El Niño episodes, making them about 36% stronger than before the industrial era. "El Niño does not bring new heat to the planet. It releases heat that the ocean has already accumulated beneath the surface — that’s why years of strong El Niño events so often become the hottest on record (as was the case in 2024)," Saulo said at the Global Heat forum in Bangkok in October. "The ocean from which it draws this heat is now the warmest we have ever measured. There is simply more heat available to be released."
