Foto: BB.LV / ракета Тополь
France is demanding that Germany clearly outline under what circumstances Berlin intends to use long-range missiles in the event of a conflict with Russia, warning that the absence of such agreements creates the risk of inadvertently dragging Europe into a nuclear war. Paris is negotiating with German officials to align Berlin's approach to the use of weapons capable of delivering so-called deep precision strikes (DPS) with the French nuclear strategy, the British newspaper The Financial Times (FT) reported on Wednesday, November 11, citing sources. One French official warned in an interview with FT that conventional weapons could be used to strike a Russian target, but a "nuclear reaction" would follow in response. "If the Russians misinterpret the signal, we could reach the nuclear threshold without even realizing it," he explained. ## ## Germany is expanding its long-range arsenal France's concerns have arisen against the backdrop of a significant expansion of long-range weapon arsenals by Germany and a group of other countries, including the UK, Poland, as well as the Nordic and Baltic states. The aim of these efforts is to strengthen European deterrence against Moscow. Berlin is procuring and developing a range of ground-based missiles with ranges from 500 to over 2000 km. They will enable the German armed forces to strike targets deep within Russian territory. These measures are part of Germany's efforts to organize European rearmament in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty of American commitments to European security under President Donald Trump. ## ## Paris fears responsibility for allies' strikes After President Emmanuel Macron announced in March the start of discussions on how the French nuclear program could protect European partners, Paris has been negotiating nuclear doctrine with several European countries. France is particularly focused on Germany due to its large defense budget, which will amount to €780 billion over five years until the end of 2030, and extensive rearmament plans. In Paris, there are fears that the French concept of "forward deterrence" could lead Moscow to hold Paris responsible for strikes carried out by allies. "If you invite someone into your home, you are responsible if they set it on fire," one official familiar with the discussions told FT. According to one French representative, France as a nuclear power has developed its own "nuclear grammar and lexicon," implying unspoken rules of interaction. "There are habits that we have developed over time. The Germans do not have them. It would be much better to have a clear and sufficiently public doctrine so that the Russians never misunderstand the signals and misinterpret them," he added. ## ## Berlin supports the alignment of military doctrines A senior German official stated that Berlin "cannot disagree" on the need to develop a "common doctrine and common understanding of the escalation ladder" among European capitals. According to him, it was Germany that initiated the discussion three years ago on the necessity of strengthening conventional means to deter Moscow. "This is not a situation where the French are asking for something, and we are resisting. The acquisition of these capabilities for deep precision strikes must necessarily be accompanied by a common understanding of how to use them. That has been clear from the very beginning," he added. The German official reported that official negotiations have stalled due to an internal discussion in France about the future of its nuclear strategy, but are now gaining momentum. One possible outcome could be a statement from Germany, France, and the UK defining their common approach. However, the official warned that it is still a long way off. ## ## The UK discusses joint developments The UK, the only other nuclear power among European NATO members, is holding similar talks with Germany. These are taking place within the framework of plans for joint weapon development with ranges exceeding 2000 km based on a bilateral defense agreement signed in 2024. According to a British representative, the two countries are also discussing the possibility of France joining this program. He warned that there is sometimes "confusion" in understanding the term "deep precision strike." The primary aim of such strikes is to weaken the enemy's combat potential by targeting command centers, logistical hubs, ammunition depots, or arms factories, but not government buildings or nuclear facilities. "We all recognize the need to prevent escalation to the nuclear level," emphasized the British official. ## ## Germany claims a leading role in European defense The intensifying discussion about long-range weapons reveals contradictions related to Germany's decision to take on a leading role in European defense and security, abandoning the cautious course it has followed for decades after World War II, FT notes. It also demonstrates the consequences of the reduction of the American presence on the continent and the risk of new disagreements between European states. German political and military leaders are eager to present plans for creating new military capabilities, including satellite reconnaissance and intelligence gathering, as European assets rather than exclusively German ones. General Ingo Gerhartz of the Bundeswehr, who heads the NATO command responsible for the defense of Central Europe and the eastern flank of the alliance, stated that such an approach should also apply to deep precision strikes. "Many countries on the front line are already capable of delivering deep precision strikes," Gerhartz said at the Berlin Security Conference last week. At the same time, he warned that such decisions must always be made after consultations with other NATO allies, "because anything a single country does regarding Russia will always be attributed to all of NATO." Gerhartz stated that the capabilities for such strikes "must be integrated into the entire alliance's policy." ## ## Experts call for defining rules for weapon use Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi, based in Vienna, stated that Berlin needs to establish priorities for target selection, escalation management rules, and the process for sanctioning strikes. This is necessary to ensure that such capabilities provide a sufficient deterrent effect and reduce the risk of misunderstanding. "I am most concerned about the political leadership in Germany. I do not think it truly understands how the Bundeswehr envisions conducting war against Russia and how important it is to strike targets deep within Russian territory if Germany and NATO intend to implement their plan to defeat the Russian army. This issue needs to be discussed in much more detail - perhaps not publicly, but definitely at the level of political and military leaders," he said.
